3 Lessons on Farm Decision-Making From a Poker Champion
At Harvest Profit, we not only make farm management software. We are all about sharing ideas and best practices around all things related to farm management itself.
Farming is a unique business.
Very few business have as little control over their revenue as farmers do.
You can’t control future weather.
You can’t control global geopolitical events.
You can’t control foreign policy.
And, ultimately, you can’t control future grain market outcomes.
You get the point!
You need to make 100’s of decisions for every crop you raise.
The lack of direct control over the two primary drivers of your revenue, weather and commondity markets, doesn’t mean you should simply take a “wait and see” approach to your decisions on the farm.
You know this as well! But it doesn’t make it any easier.
One way to take more control over your farm decisions is to face your decisions with a probability-focused approach.
At Harvest Profit, we are big proponents of thinking in probabilities vs. predictions. See below for two blog posts on the subject.
- You Need a Statistical Framework for Farm Management Decisions
- Using Statistics to Make Better Grain Marketing Decisions
This leads us to today’s topic.
Liv Boeree is a British professional poker player and a thought-leader on probability-based decision making.
She give a powerful 6-minute presentation on the topic that is highly applicable to farm decision making and I’m going to share that with you today. Watch the presentaiton below.
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Grain marketing is hard! Volatile commodity markets lead to frustration, greed, and indecision. Today's farmer needs to work hard to find a risk management system that allows them to make less emotional, and more profitable, grain marketing decisions.Read More »